Mark Coker, Smashwords CEO, Ebook Predictions for 2013

Mark CokerI’ve been a huge fan of Mark Coker since the early days of e-publishing (2009)–even asked for his autograph at the SF Writer’s Conference. But this isn’t about my fandom–it’s about Mark’s 2013 predictions for ebooks and the business in general. These are just the bullet points (the actual blog post is longer than some Indie books I’ve read), but you can read the entire article here –

Remember, these are Mark’s predictions, not mine. ( I tend to agree except about #13 because I’ve decided B&N is going down since they sell so few of my books.)

1.  In the US, ebooks sales will reach 45% of US trade book market

2.  Follow the eyeballs:  2013 will be the first year unit volume of ebooks exceeds print

3.  The current glut of books will become even more pronounced

4.  It’ll get tougher to sell books

5.  Publishers, in search of Black Swans, will lose authors to self-publishing platforms

6.  Overall ebook prices will decline, though author brands will retain pricing power

7.  Passive discoverability trumps other book marketing methods

8.  Tablets will become the new paper as E-Ink becomes niche product

9.  Global will be the biggest story of 2013 for indie authors

10.  Amazon, Apple, Barnes & Noble and Kobo will redouble global expansion efforts

11.  Apple iBookstore will be the breakout story of 2013 ebook retailing

12.  Amazon’s global ebook market share will decline

13.  Barnes & Noble will rise again like a Phoenix

14.  In the self-publishing gold rush, more money will be made in author services than in book sales

15.  Pearson/Penguin/Random House/Simon & Schuster will either cut bait on Author Solutions or ride this anchor to the bottom of the sea

16.  The Big 6 will become the Big 4 as bean counters take over the farm

17.  Stigma of Big 6 (or Big 4 or Big 3) publishers will increase as prior stigma of self-publishing evaporates

18.  EPUB 3 will disappoint

19.  Ebook subscription offerings will face uphill slog

20.  Indie authors poised to capture a growing percentage of library ebook market

21.  Indie ebooks will start driving more film & television projects

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+Jason Matthews author

One Response to “Mark Coker, Smashwords CEO, Ebook Predictions for 2013”

  1. courseofmirrors Says:

    Wishing you and yours a magical New Year …

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